Circularity in Times of Uncertainty: Signals of the Next Economy and the Role of Territories

* By André Schelini

We live in a time when uncertainty is no longer the exception but the rule. Climate crises, technological disruptions, geopolitical instability, and profound regulatory changes are simultaneously reshaping markets, global value chains, and the way decisions are made. In this context, insisting on linear models of production and consumption is not only environmentally unsustainable but also strategically risky.

The circular economy therefore emerges not only as an ecological response but as a model of economic organization capable of generating resilience in complex and volatile environments. Circularity here means rethinking flows, reducing dependencies, retaining value, diversifying input sources, and transforming waste into assets. At its core, it represents a logic of survival and adaptation in an economy defined by uncertainty.

The signals of the next economy are already visible. Shorter global supply chains, increasing demands for traceability, standardization of environmental concepts, new trade rules, pressure for decarbonization, and selective climate finance. In this context, circularity ceases to be a competitive advantage and becomes a language of market access. Those who do not speak this language risk being left behind.

Yet there is a central issue that must be addressed honestly: the circular transition does not occur in a neutral way. It requires investment, cultural change, technical capacity, and above all decision-making in highly complex environments. This is where many models fail, especially when they overlook the role of small businesses and territories.

Small businesses account for the majority of jobs and economic dynamism in developing countries. However, they are also the most vulnerable to abrupt changes in rules, standards, and environmental requirements. Without support, training, and practical translation of circularity, there is a risk that a necessary agenda could become a driver of economic exclusion.

For this reason, circularity must be understood as a territorial strategy rather than merely an environmental policy. It is in territories that the economy actually takes place. This is where waste is generated, supply chains are formed, solutions emerge, and incremental innovations scale. When circularity is connected to territorial dynamics, space opens for contextualized solutions, hybrid models, and feasible transitions.

In this sense, strategic decision-making changes in nature. Instead of pursuing maximum efficiency at any cost, managers and entrepreneurs begin to seek balance between efficiency, resilience, and adaptability. Circularity becomes a tool to reduce systemic risks, diversify revenue streams, extend asset lifecycles, and strengthen competitiveness in the medium and long term.

Another clear signal of the next economy is the growing importance of conceptual standardization. Terms such as circular, recyclable, reuse, by-product, and green economy have moved beyond narratives and are now embedded in contracts, regulations, and global supply chains. Clarity about the meaning of these concepts is not a technical detail; it is central to governance, compliance, and access to international markets.

In this new context, leading the circularity agenda requires more than good intentions. It requires systemic vision, the ability to articulate partnerships, and a commitment to practical solutions. It also requires recognizing that the transition will be uneven if economic inclusion mechanisms are not in place. Above all, it requires understanding that circularity is not an end in itself, but a means to build smarter, more resilient, and regenerative economies.

The next economy is already underway. It will not be linear, predictable, or homogeneous. It will be marked by diffuse signals, decisions made under uncertainty, and disputes over new standards. When treated with strategic seriousness, circularity offers a possible path to navigate this scenario by connecting sustainability, competitiveness, and territorial development.

The challenge now is not whether we should move forward, but how to move forward without leaving anyone behind. And that answer necessarily involves territories, small businesses, and leaders capable of turning complexity into direction.

* André Luiz Schelini is Technical Director at the Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support Service of Mato Grosso (Sebrae/MT), with more than 20 years of experience strengthening micro and small enterprises.
He holds an MSc in Business Administration and has extensive experience in leadership, innovation, sustainability, and business internationalization, as well as in promoting entrepreneurship, territorial development, and institutional partnerships in Brazil and abroad.

*This text was automatically translated with the help of artificial intelligence and reviewed. Still, there may be slight differences compared to the original version in Portuguese.